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Ranking the best fantasy hockey defensemen and preliminary strategy for 2010-11

When it comes to formulating your strategy draft, take some time to carefully consider your advocacy approach. More than any other position, defensive scoring can vary dramatically from league to league. Some leagues value a defender’s score more than a forward’s, while others group them together. This can drastically change your approach in terms of when to draft that first defender on your roster. For example, in standard CBS league scoring, a goal by a defender is worth 5 points, compared to 3 for a forward. That puts a premium on a D-man who can score 10 or more goals in a season.

When it comes to ranking defenders, it’s important to do it by tier. There tends to be a dramatic drop in production after the first 10 or 15 players. After that, you can find 30-40 guys who will drop in the 30-45 point territory. So, unlike in goal, there is relatively little difference between your 20th-ranked defense and your 40th-ranked player. Just look at the stats for the last few years, for example. 13 players surpassed the 45-point mark. After that, there were 36 players who scored between 30 and 45 points. The real difference comes at the top of the list, where Mike Green is in only one class. While Duncan Keith put up a fight, 17 points separated Green from third place Drew Doughty.

Another factor to consider is how predictable this position tends to be against offense and goal. While goalkeeping leaders tend to fluctuate a lot from year to year, top scorers on defense tend to be much more predictable. So if you spend an early pick on a higher-rated defender, you have a much better chance of making the pick work. Just ask anyone who drafted Tim Thomas or Nick Backstrom (G) in Round 1 last year.

As a general rule of thumb, I try to get 2 of the top 10 defenders, even if I have to sacrifice in other areas. It is the safest bet there is. After that, load up on strikers and goalkeepers and fill out your defense with whatever you can catch around round 8 and beyond. And if you get a chance with Mike Green, take it. Even as high as first overall. In terms of value, you can’t beat his numbers at that position. Period. Well, you know my number one is, so let’s take a look at the rest of the top picks too:

TIER 1

1. mike green
True, his goal total was much lower last season, but he still scored 19 and led all blueliners in points with 76. He should repeat or better those totals in 2010-11. If there’s one sure thing in fantasy hockey, his name is Mike Green.

2. Drew Doughty
If anyone has a chance to rival Green in points from behind, it’s Doughty. The king of smooth skating is entering his third season and is already among the elite in his position. Don’t hesitate to take him in the first round.

3.Shea Weber
Shea Weber has arrived as a top-tier fantasy defenseman. Leaving aside the 2007 season when he was injured, Weber has given up a total of 17, 23 and 16 goals. His shot from the spot is the most difficult we’ve seen since Al Iafrate and Al MacInnis retired. 20 goals should be given this season in Nashville.

4. Duncan Keith
Keith finally got the respect he was due after finishing second in defensive scoring, winning the Cup and claiming his first Norris Trophy. There’s no reason to expect any big setbacks here, though it may be difficult to reach 69 points again. He seemed a bit shy in the finale after losing half his teeth, but he has the summer to get over that fear. Bet on 60 points or more and settle for him as his best defense.

5. Sergei Gonchar
When healthy, there have been few fantasy options better than Mr. Gonchar over the past decade. He is a master at executing the power play and racking up the assists. His move from Pittsburgh to Ottawa may take a bit off his total, but don’t let that scare you. Remember, he had the best stats on a poor Capitals team before he got to the Pens. The only thing keeping Gonchar from being a top 3 defensive pick is health issues. I would still take a chance on him in Round 2.

TIME 2

6. Dan Boyle
Boyle has topped 50 points in 5 of the last 7 seasons, and one of those off years was cut short by a freak injury. The Sharks haven’t lost an iota of their firepower up front, so you can look forward to another solid offensive year from the veteran defenseman. He should see somewhere in the neighborhood of his usual 15-goal, 50-plus-point season, as he chews close to 30 minutes a night.

7. Zdeno Chara
Chara’s goal totals sank last season, along with everyone else in Boston. He still finished the season with 44 points and a lot of penalty minutes, which is normal for the giant in the last decade. The Bruins will score more this season, and Chara should bounce back to the 15-territory goal.

8.Tyler Myers
Myers proved to be a beast on defense in his rookie year, racking up 11 goals and 48 points en route to winning the Calder Trophy. He did it by playing a relatively modest number of minutes for a No. 1 defenseman. The Sabers won’t hesitate to give him more ice time after losing Lydman and Tallinder this summer. He won’t be surprised to see 60 points named after him by the end of the year.

9. Mark Street
Streit has been a fantasy stud since he arrived on the island three seasons ago. However, his numbers have dropped a bit in the last two seasons. He is still an elite player and will continue to play about half of every game as the Islanders have few options. New York’s youngsters are coming into their prime and the goal count will be up this season, so expect Streit to get closer to 50 assists. He quality pick as his No. 1 D.

10. Chris Pronger
At 36, one would think he should be starting to slow down; however, if you watched the playoffs last spring, there’s no sign of that yet. Pronger’s stats are remarkably consistent from year to year, and he contributes in every category. So depending on your format and punctuation, you can place it higher. Look for another 10-goal/50-point year from the Philadelphia bad boy.

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