A bookie will sometimes apply a technique known as ‘line shading’ to squeeze extra money out of a contest by deciding who the big favorites or ‘public’ team will be.
Public teams are popular teams that are bet on by a large segment of the betting public. These can be teams with up-and-coming superstars or very popular players or coaches, or simply teams that are doing very well in the eyes of the public. Not all favorite teams will be worth the betting interest they receive, but some will.
The bookie will look at each pairing individually and shade the odds line if applicable, basically when they feel they can get an advantage.
Location can greatly influence the market in the form of fan betting volume. East Coast players can bet on the Patriots, Giants, or other East Coast teams. West Coast fans may prefer San Francisco or the Raiders, and Chicago-area gamblers go for the Bears.
Most of these players won’t really care (in betting terms) how their team is doing, they just want to bet a few bucks on their team and have a little fun.
For example, if a favorite soccer team should have a “correct” price of -6.5 on spread/handicap, the bookmaker may want to “shade” the line to -7. That half-point move puts the line at a critical margin number and this could earn rewards for the sportsbook if the action spills over. Also where the -2.5 line the book can test it at -3, another number of crucial points.
Of course, there are teams that the public does not like, so the opposite is true here. The line can be pushed from, say, +5.5 to +7.5 on the unpopular team, especially if they are up against a heavy favorite, thus creating some possible value on the dog team.
Bettors can be notoriously changeable, teams that don’t perform well can be quickly written off as a public team just as quickly as they were adopted; this applies more to some teams than others.
The bookmaker needs to be alert to these changes and by using a good balance of skill and judgment can take advantage of these situations.
It is said that some books can increase your profit margins by more than 20% if you do it right.
