It’s no secret that there are many “smart money” players who make money betting on sports every week. As? Many use sports handicap services to find the games they have the best chance of winning. The following are two examples taken directly from my sports disability service at David James Sports.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears -16
Wow… That’s a lot of points to give up in an NFL game. Of course, when you start looking at the two teams, you can understand why the 49ers get so many points. With the exception of Monday night’s near-disaster in Arizona against the Cardinals, the Bears have totally dominated all season. In four of the Bears’ victories they outscored their opponents 137-20.
Think about that stat for a second. We’re talking about NFL teams, not small super-powered college teams playing against powerhouses. 137-20 in 16 quarters of football, which included last year’s NFC champion Seattle Seahawks. With professional games, even more weight is placed on the here and now rather than historical statistics.
The here and now says the Bears have the potential to be a team for history. The only reason they came close to losing in Arizona was because their offense turned the ball over 6 times. And yet the Bears found a way to win. On the other hand, the 49ers are just another lousy football team. They somehow managed to beat St. Louis and Oakland this season, but they have given up more than 40 points per game in their four losses. This is the key stat of this game. The 49ers defense is likely to let Chicago score up the middle, up to the high 30 in this game.
With the line at 16 points, the question is, can the 49ers score 20 points against the Bears defense? I really doubt it. Forget about records against the spread etc in this game. What this game boils down to is the 49ers being overwhelmingly unbalanced on both sides of the ball, going into a very hostile and highly amplified environment. The Bears are going to try to pour it in front of their home fans.
I look for the Bears to crush the 49ers in this one, 37-10.
As you can see in this example, a good sports handicapper can cut through all the bullshit and get straight to the heart of a game. That is, the Bears have a far superior team and will be able to destroy the 49ers. The actual final score in this game was 41-10.
The second game was the best matchup of the day. You can see when you read this analysis that the professional sports handicapper can once again focus on what is most important about the game:
Indianapolis Cots +3 at Denver Broncos
This game is the marquis showdown of the week. This game could very well be a preview of the AFC Championship game… which is why we’re going with the Colts in this one. Let me explain. Tony Dungy is a great coach and a great man.
However, it is not so good in the playoffs. Because? First, their teams can beat smaller teams during the regular season because they have more talent, but when they’re playing against opponents that are more evenly matched, it’s a lot harder to get from one side of the field to the other, especially in the playoffs. But the second reason is that Dungy isn’t as smart as some of the more experienced trainers… Mike Shanahan, for example.
What that means is that the Colts will do everything they can to win this game, even if it means showing the Broncos a few twists and wrinkles they should save for their likely playoff matchup. More importantly, Indy knows the pressure is on them to win the Super Bowl again. They know that a loss to Denver could mean returning to Denver in a January blizzard to make it to the Super Bowl.
Peyton Manning does NOT want to play in another playoff blizzard and be embarrassed again. Also, just looking at the two teams, this game doesn’t really match up. Denver hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game this season. They’ve actually only scored 17 points TWICE this season. All of his other games were under 13s.
Denver’s defense is playing very well, but in my opinion, it’s overrated. Their last three games have been against Cleveland, Oakland and Baltimore. Look back at how the Steelers destroyed their secondary in the AFC Championship Game last January. Manning will do the same. With all of this in mind, it’s insane in my opinion that the Colts are GETTING 3 points in this game.
Much like the Kansas City game, I think the Colts’ chances of winning this game are at least 50/50. With the three points added, the odds of winning this bet increase dramatically. Look for the Colts to win and go, 28-13.
What actually happened in this game is very close to what was predicted, with the Colts leading by 3 points. The Broncos, knowing they will play Indy again in the playoffs, kept their defense in the soft zone throughout the game. This allowed Indy to score every time he had the ball, but allowed the Broncos to keep a few tricks up their sleeves for their next game.
