INTRODUCTION

The status quo becomes more untenable every day. Experts say the situation is more precarious than at any time in the past 75 years, when humans have lived with the dangers of atomic and nuclear bombs. Experts warn that the issue of annihilation is not if, but when, unless significant changes are made to the spread of these weapons and the systems to control and prevent their use. The prospects for reforms are not good, but that must change. The obstacles are formidable but not entirely impossible to overcome.

This reality explains why most of us, including those here, rarely broach the subject. Denial plays a role, as does the fact that gun control is not a local issue. National administrations, both Democratic and Republican, largely delegate responsibility for controls to the military and other experts. Jonathan Schell, in “The Fate of the Earth” (1982), noted that it is as if there is a monster in the room, and yet we have managed to divert our attention from it.

Fortunately, there are some well-regarded individuals and institutions looking for ways to reduce the risks that these weapons will ever be used and, in the most fanciful hope, that they may one day be retired.

TRUE WELLBEING

Yes, you are reading a REAL essay focused on wellness, a look at the positive side of life-based philosophy. My approach is to promote mental and physical well-being through the use of reason, the joys of exuberance, the disciplines of athletics, and the art of ensuring maximum freedom. But alas, what good is that if, by madness or accident, one or more of the 15,000 existing thermonuclear warheads do what they are all designed to do, namely explode?

For half a century, I have promoted positive lifestyle strategies aimed at getting and staying well for as long as possible. The length of time that is possible depends on countless variables. I will mention only three:

1. Those related to oneself (ie genetics, lifestyle, timely and effective medical care) that are in any way within our control;

2. Those related to nature (ie supervolcanoes, megatsunamis, solar flares, earthquakes, global pandemics, asteroids) over which we have no control; Y

3. One related to human miscalculations (ie thermonuclear explosions) over which existing safeguards are, for a number of reasons, under dubious controls.

Sam Harris, in a recent podcast, described the ever-present threat of nuclear war as the greatest risk we face. The last 75 years that humans have lived with the bomb have been marked by near-suicidal insanity, reckless stupidity, and moral oblivion. On “The Logic of Doomsday,” Sam and his podcast guests Robert Perry (former Secretary of State) and Lisa Perry discuss the history of nuclear weapons, the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the current threat of accidental nuclear war. , nuclear terrorism, unilateral disarmament, psychology of deterrence, tactical nuclear weapons, cyber security, command and control details, nuclear proliferation, the steps we could take towards security, strategic missile defense, nuclear winter and other topics. I highly recommend this podcast.

Of course, just because the world is ending in a week, a day, or a minute doesn’t mean it’s a waste of time to seek REAL well-being. After all, our luck might hold. For those who follow gun control efforts, the consensus is that it’s a miracle that we’ve dodged the biggest bullet imaginable for 75 years. The comic-book Rapture will never happen, but something much worse is much more plausible and not improbable.

When you look at the facts, you’ll realize it’s almost unbelievable that it hasn’t already happened. The future is very bright, but not in a good way.

It may not seem like it, at first, but being aware of the risks of nuclear war, intentional or accidental, should be on the REAL wellness agenda as a matter of concern. Specifically, in addition to our pursuits of personal well-being, it makes sense to be aware of the risks of nuclear Armageddon and the ways in which those risks can be somewhat reduced. Through the policies and politicians we support, we can collectively have some influence, however small our individual efforts.

JFK warned that we must find ways to prevent “that thin thread that holds the nuclear sword of Damocles from being cut by accident, miscalculation, or madness.” He believed that no individual should have the exclusive ability to start a nuclear war on his behalf.

The heads of state of nine countries (ie the US, UK, Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea) have the power to start such a conflagration. Worse yet, in the country with more nuclear weapons than all other nations combined, our president is the only one with such authority, no one could counter his order to use such weapons. It is little consolation that he considers himself a stable genius, since only he believes either statement.

FACTS RELATING TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS

* Together, the United States and Russia control more than 90 percent of nuclear warheads, Russia with an estimated 6,500 warheads, the United States with 6,185.

* Between 1945 and 2019, the US conducted 1,030 nuclear tests; Russian 715.

* The US and Russian military budgets for nuclear weapons and nuclear war between 2013 and 2022 reflect the reality that a large-scale conflict between these two countries guarantees mutually assured destruction.

* The Nuclear Security Index ranks North Korea and Iran as the highest risks among nations that possess nuclear material.

The number of parties that control nuclear warheads (nine at present) is a bigger concern than the number of warheads, given the volatile nature of global politics.

(Source: Statista, Nuclear Weapons: Statistics and Facts, Erin Duffin, 2/7/20.)

THE JUDGMENT CLOCK

Scientists at the University of Chicago who had helped develop the first atomic weapons in 1945 created the Doomsday Clock. They did this using the imagery of the apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary language of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero). The Clock time is based on an annual assessment of threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or leave in place) the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock is made each year by the Bulletin’s Science and Safety Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors. The latter includes 13 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophes brought about by nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains.

It is currently set to 100 seconds to midnight.

INITIAL STEPS WHICH COULD REDUCE THE RISKS OF ACCIDENTAL OR OTHER USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

* No president should have sole and absolute authority to launch nuclear weapons. Donald Trump, on his account, could call nuclear football, open attack option folders, and relay orders to the National Military Command Center. Orders would go to missile control officers (ICBMs are set for rapid trigger alert) and 30 minutes later explosions would go off over the targets. Eliminating the president’s exclusive power to launch nuclear weapons, committing not to be the first to use them as national policy, eliminating ICBMs (expensive and essentially useless except for the ability to strike first) are all highly favored steps. Other includes:

* Promote public education about the nature and existential risks of a nuclear catastrophe due to miscalculation, technical malfunction and/or political blunders.

* Eliminate work on strategic defenses: According to experts, including Secretary Perry, it will not be possible to try to distinguish actual oncoming missiles from an avalanche of decoys.

* Elect presidents and other leaders who understand these issues and are committed to trying to reduce nuclear risks.

* US policy should be not to wait for treaties to be drawn up and confirmed: start now to reduce redundant/excess weapons capacity.

* Support organizations that advance these and other ends, including San Francisco-based Ploughshares Fund.

Secretary Perry’s granddaughter, Lisa, the director of an organization that promotes nuclear weapons reform and containment strategies, says “there is a world in which these changes can happen.” Dialogue and subsequent demands as potent as the current rise in racial justice and police reforms are needed to raise awareness of the existential threat greater today than at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962.

Secretary Perry told Sam Harris on “The Logic of Doomsday” podcast that every day he went to work at the White House during the final days of the Cuban Missile Crisis, he did not expect to be alive at the end of the day. . Looking back, the consensus among experts is that the risks of nuclear war during that time were 50/50.

The 50/50 odds that prevailed in 1962 are better than the odds that experts give today that humanity will manage to avoid the catastrophic calamity of nuclear weapons detonations.

BRUCE BLAIR

At the age of 25 in 1972, Bruce Blair was assigned as a Minuteman Missile Launch Officer at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana. His office was an underground bunker, his job: to carry out a nuclear attack if ordered to do so. This experience and years of study, research, and work convinced him that the command and control structures of the major powers presented unnecessary risks of accidental nuclear war. In an article in today’s Washington Post, reporter Emily Langer notes that Dr. Blair devoted the rest of his professional life to reducing the nuclear threat… through rigorous analysis of the command and control system…

In 1999, Bruce Blair received a MacArthur Genius Fellowship. He was highly regarded by activists, as well as by military and intelligence officials here and in Moscow. He was in favor of removing weapons from instant-trigger alert status and physically separating warheads from missiles. His goal was to add time to the process to reduce the possibility of error. The Washington Post story provided this information:

“During the 2016 presidential campaign, Dr. Blair arranged for a letter signed by 10 former nuclear launch control officials stating that they did not believe that then-Republican candidate Donald Trump, if elected to the White House, should receive the codes. He has proven time and again to be easily tempted and quick to lash out, dismissive of expert consultation, and misinformed of even basic military and international issues, including, most especially, nuclear weapons, the letter said. he should be the leader of the nation. commander in chief. He should not be trusted with nuclear launch codes. He should not have his finger on the button.”

(Source: Emily Langer, Bruce Blair, “Leading Voice For Nuclear Arms Control, Dies at 72,” Washington Post, July 21, 2020.)

The Post article is highly recommended, as are other sources of information on the notable Secretary Perry and the late Dr. Bruce Blair.